This week will be a big one as Investors brace up for the Official Trigger of article 50 by Prime Minister may. Also with the failure to pass the Trump health bill, we see rising concerns as to how the Trump led Administration will fulfil its tax reform mandate part of its Fiscal Spending plans. The defeat for the bill adds to doubts over the Trump administration’s ability to push through the pro-growth economic agenda promised by the president. It is expected that as this doubts increase the FEDZ may slowdown on their plans to tighten further in the year.
On the Crude-Oil Scene, We expect the US Crude-Oil inventory to begin to slip as Saudi keeps to its promise of reducing exports to the US by 300,000 bpd to further reduce the glut in the Oil Supply.
EUR: (9.00AM) IFO BIZ CLIMATE; A heads-up into the biz climate in EU, a strong outcome should firm up the EURO.
CAD: (3:10PM) BOC GOVERNOR (STEPHEN POLOZ SPEAKS); The takeaway from this would be the press conference that takes place 65mins after the statement is released this should be at about 4.15PM GMT+1, also the text of the statement will be released 15mins before the listed time of the statement schedule.
GBP: (TENTATIVE) ARTICLE 50 TRIGGER; Not yet on the Economic timetable nevertheless this is a game changer as the UK officially commence the process of exiting the EU.
USOIL: (3.30PM) CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES; We may begin to experience the Supply cut of Saudi on the US Inventory numbers going forth.
EUR: (TENTATIVE) GERMAN PRELIM INFLATION; This will be a pointer to the EU ZONE CPI slated to come out the following day. A positive outcome could mean a positive outcome for the headline inflation report.
USD: (1.30PM) FINAL GDP; We will be looking out for this data to give us a heads up on how the US Economy fared in Q4, though a lagging indicator but a surprise increase or fall in GDP would see a massive impact on the currency.
JPY: (12.30AM) NATIONAL CORE CPI y/y & TOKYO CORE CPI y/y; HOSEHOLD SPENDING; We will be looking closely at the NATIONAL CORE CPI looking for a sustainability in the positive trend in the CPI, last CPI came out for the first time in years in the positive region.
GBP: (9.30AM) CURRENT ACCOUNT/FINAL GDP; The Current account is expected to show a trend in reducing deficit as UK goods become attractive to the markets, the Final GDP will also throw light on the growth rate in the UK.
EUR: (10.00AM) FLASH ESTIMATE CPI y/y; We will be looking for further inflammation in the EUR CPI with a special focus on the Core, as this could show us an improving economy thereby forcing the ECB to start reducing accommodation.
CAD: (1.30PM) GDP m/m; We will be looking for signs of growth as the spill-over growth effect from the US Economy wades into economic numbers from the LOONIE.
USD: (1.30PM) PERSONAL SPENDING/ PERSONAL INCOME; If growth is on a sustainable path, this numbers will prove it otherwise it may further cast doubt on the growth trend in the US.
USD: (1.30PM) CORE PCE PRICE INDEX; This is the FEDZ measure for inflation, a pick-up in this data further supports the last week interest rate hike. A dip below the expectation means further weakness in the US.