Furthermore, The EUROPEAN final CPI came out at exactly the same outcome as the Preliminary figure signalling no change in the data, as stated in our previous reports, the ECB needs to see a sustainable Inflation print and also the CORE CPI near or above its Target Range before we can see any adjustment to policy. Turning over to the CANADIAN ECONOMY, the Retail Sales figure for the Month of December posted a disappointing figure even after a stellar Manufacturing Sales data for December, we expected this data to filter into the retail sales data outcome instead we had a negative outcome, nevertheless the CANADIAN CPI y/y data fed into the outlook for the Economy turning it from a neutral to optimistic stance as the data came out above the lower bound of the BOC Inflation Target range coming out at 2.1%. This Data coupled with the revival of the North Dakota /Keystone XL pipeline deal should see the Governor Stephen Poloz make Hawkish comments when the BOC MPC committee meets this week. This should make the LOONIE strengthen against other Major Currencies this week.
AUD: (1.30AM) COMPANY OPERATING PROFITS q/q; this is the first risk data for the Week, this data could be a pointer to the outcome of the Q4 GDP Data.
USD: (2.30PM) DURABLE GOODS; A Bit difficult to determine the outcome of this one, nevertheless, irrespective of the outcome the General Outlook for the US economy is still Positive.
NZD: (10.45PM) TRADE BALANCE; with the positive outcome for December, we may see a spill over into this Data for the month.
NZD: (1.00AM) ANZ BIZ CONFIDENCE; A forward looking data of BIZ confidence. Muted impact expected.
USD: (2.30PM) PRELIM GDP q/q; we had the Advanced GDP come out at 1.9% late last month. This release is a more robust data as it takes more respondents into consideration, we hope to see a stronger release than the advanced data if the outcome meets and surpasses expectations.
AUD: (1.30AM) GDP q/q; with the negative Private Capital Expenditure Q4 data at -1.0%, we may see this feed into the GDP data, nevertheless a positive data is expected with all the Optimistic outlook for the AUSSIE.
USD: (3.00AM) PRESIDENCY TRUMP SPEAKS; A Major risk event for Wednesday, Traders should be on high alert, as any comments from the Presidency can usurp the Markets, We want to be on alert on this one.
EUR: (TENTATIVE) GERMAN PRELIM CPI m/m; Being the Largest Economy in the EUROZONE the outcome of this data could be a forward indicator on the outcome of the entire EUROZONE CPI slated for Thursday this week.
GBP: (10.30AM) MANUFACTURING PMI; the outcome of this data will be so important to look out for today, with dwindling confidence in the economy. Investors and traders alike will want to see if the negative sentiment from Brexit is beginning to filter its way into the broader economy. Knowing how important this data is as a forward looking indicator for growth in the economy.
USD: (2.30PM) CORE PCE PRICE INDEX m/m; with US CPI already within the target range at 2.5% and Core at 2.3%, the FOMC Policy makers and traders alike will be looking out for this data to see signs of pickup in consumer prices(Inflation). This Data is the FEDZ gauge for Inflation in the US economy implying this data determines how they will adjust policy due to perceived changes in inflation and future expectations.
USD: (2.30PM) PERSONAL SPENDING & OUTLAYS; The FEDZ will also like to see the outcome of this data even though the Core PCE will overshadow the effect of this data. Nevertheless the FEDZ will be interested in the Outlays of Consumers as this should mean that Consumers are confident in the outlook of the Economy therefore are willing to spend.
CAD: (4.00PM) BOC RATE STATEMENT; The BOC will be releasing their Interest rate decision today. Based on incoming data from CANADA and clarity in the FISCAL POLICIES of their largest business partner (Clarity in PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMPS POLICIES WITH CANADA) we expect an optimistic comment from the Governor Stephen Poloz, which will be a contrast to his previous comments of uncertainty which filtered into his decision in the last BOC MPC meeting.
USD: (4.00PM) ISM MANUFACTURING PMI; Strong Data Expected from the Manufacturing PMI
USOIL: (4.30PM) CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES; we had last weeks’ data come out below expectations at a 7 week low, Inventories have been above trend beating expectations since the turn of the Year, signalling possible expectations of higher crude oil prices therefore the increase in Stock piles, we want to see continuity in that trend to signal to us that last week outcome was just a blip and we should see continuous increase in demand.
GBP: (10.30AM) CONSTRUCTION PMI; Same expectation as the MANUFACTURING PMI.
EUR: (11.00AM) CPI FLAH ESTIMATE y/y; The Forecast is same as the stellar outcome for last month, Economist expect no change, nevertheless traders will be on the lookout for a rise, especially in the CORE data, because ECB president Mario Draghi has citied his interest in the CORE to determine if the ECB policies has actually filtered its way into the Consumers hence the broader Economy.
CAD: (2.30PM) GDP m/m; Growth is expected in this Data as US Fundamentals continue to filter into growth in CANADA as more demand increase for Canadian exports in the US.
JPY: (12.30AM) HOUSEHOLD SPENDING y/y; A pointer to pick up in Economic activity, the more they spend the more the economy becomes reflational.
JPY: (12.30AM) NATIONAL CORE CPI y/y & TOKYO CORE CPI y/y; Tokyo being the hub of business activity makes its CPI even more important than the entire National CPI data. We want to see a pickup in CPI so we know if truly the BOJ’s reflational policies is taking effect.
GBP: (10.30AM) SERVICES PMI; Same expectation as the MANUFACTURING CPI.
USD: (4.00PM) ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI; Strong release expected.
USOIL: (6.00PM) BAKER HUGHES OIL RIG COUNT; Strong Oil rig count for Six straight weeks caused WTI to weaken on Friday, nevertheless Crude Oil traders still optimistic, we expect positive outcome as well this week as the outlook for crude oil improves more.
USD: (7.00PM) FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN SPEAKS; Due to speak about the US Economic Outlook at the EXECUTIVES club of CHICAGO; as she speaks to this EXECUTIVES and BUSINESS owners, we expect her to be upbeat and optimistic about the economy a little sign of dampness will see a sell-off in the USD.